近日，海南大学“一带一路”研究院院长梁海明教授受邀赴京参加第三届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛。此次论坛是“一带一路”框架下最高规格的国际活动，主题为“高质量共建‘一带一路’，携手实现共同发展繁荣”。本届论坛不仅是纪念“一带一路”倡议提出10周年最隆重的活动，也是各方共商高质量共建“一带一路”合作的重要平台。梁海明院长表示，第三届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛的特别之处是要为中国发展营造更好的环境，要为世界发展作出更大贡献！
10月17日，梁海明院长作为发言嘉宾在“一带一路”国际智库合作委员会全体大会分论坛上围绕“‘一带一路’与人类命运共同体”主题展开发言。梁海明院长的演讲主题为“‘一带一路’带来的是共同增长，而不是债务陷阱”，以下为发言实录：
BRI has led to common growth, not debt trap
By Liang Haiming
Ladies and gentlemen,
Thanks for having me today. The BRI, which has been 10 years since its launch, has been widely welcomed by the global community, as a bridge that supports international cooperation. However, in the past years there have been groundless claims, saying that BRI projects lead to debt traps for the participating countries. Today, I would like to tell you why this is not true and merely a misperception.
Let's start from looking at the evidence. Despite these claims, there is little serious, research-based proof to support them. Most of these accusations come from the politicization of economic issues by scholars, government officials, think tanks, and media outlets from countries such as India, United States, and Australia.
For example, the idea of "debt-trap diplomacy" by Indian scholar Brahma Chellaney portrays China as an sneaky lender, who tries to trap developing countries in unsustainable debt, and takes advantage of their military and natural resources, when they cannot repay the debts. However, these attempts have been strongly refuted by various parties.
Leaders, officials, and scholars from many BRI participating countries have publicly rejected these false claims about China's "debt-trap diplomacy". Some US scholars and think tanks have also published reports based on solid research data to refute these accusations.
A professor of political economy at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, has used examples of Kenya, Zambia, and others to show that the debt-trap narrative, was propagated by Western media outlets without any evidence. RAND Corp, a famous US think tank, published a research report stating that BRI railway projects have led to a 2.8 percent increase in exports for participating countries.
Moreover, studies have shown that BRI transportation infrastructure projects, have reduced logistics time by 1.2 percent to 2.5 percent in surveyed countries, lowered global trade costs by 1.1 percent to 2.2 percent, and contributed to a global income increase of 0.7 percent to 2.9 percent. These findings provide solid proof of the positive economic effects of Chinese investments in BRI projects.
Base on extensive research, we have found that BRI brings opportunities and mutual growth to participating economies, not debt traps. We have also observed some interesting phenomena.
First, some of the politicians who sensationalized the "debt-trap" myth in BRI-involved countries later sought closer cooperation with China. Opposition parties in these countries used the debt-trap diplomacy rhetoric as a political tool, during election campaigns. However, once in power, they swiftly turned to China for loans and investments.
Second, China has focused on bringing long-term economic benefits when investing in BRI-involved countries. While there have been frequent changes in power in many Western countries, leading to new governments, not honoring agreements signed by their predecessors, China has consistently remained committed to these agreements, especially those related to infrastructure projects with long payback periods.
For example, the first High-Speed Railway in Indonesia, built by China, is expected to generate over $23 billion in revenue over the next 40 years, according to Indonesian official estimates. This not only benefits both Chinese and Indonesian companies , but also deepens economic and trade ties between the two countries.
Third, some BRI countries actually aimed to repay their debt to Western governments, and multilateral institutions, by borrowing from China to build infrastructure projects, which make up about 70 percent of BRI initiatives, help these countries develop their economies and generate revenue.
Western governments and institutions often refused to lend to such infrastructure projects, due to their long payback cycles. However, China has supported these countries in developing their economies, increasing tax revenues, and enabling them to repay their debts to Western entities , while improving their own livelihoods.
Lastly, the US interest rate hikes and the impact of COVID-19 pandemic , have posed challenges to debt management and governance in BRI countries. Recent aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed, have pushed countries with substantial US dollar debts into debt crises. Additionally, the global economy has been wildly affected by the pandemic, leading to reduced fiscal revenues and increased debt burdens.
It is important to note that, China is not the only or primary creditor for these countries. They borrowed from various creditors, including the United States, European countries, Japan, the World Bank, and the IMF, among others. According to UK charity Debt Justice, African countries, including some involved in the BRI, have borrowed 12 percent of their debts from China, and 35 percent from Western entities, especially Western private institutions. And, the interest rate on Chinese loans is on average, about 2.7 percent, while that of Western creditors is around 5 percent.
Instead of accusing China of "debt-trap diplomacy," the focus should be on improving debt management. We should strengthen international negotiations, and cooperation in debt governance, negotiate solutions to solve debt crises. This will help the indebted countries recover and restore their development capabilities.
In conclusion, the Belt and Road Initiative has huge potential to create opportunities, and common growth among participating economies. The debt-trap accusations are basically not ture and lack any solid evidence. It is time to move away from these groundless narratives and focus on constructive cooperation, debt management, and economic recovery. Together, we can build a future of shared prosperity and sustainable development.
Thank you.
